Stock Market After Presidents Day: What to Watch the Week of Feb 17

Markets are closed Monday for Presidents Day. Tuesday morning, the bell rings on a shortened four-day trading week. Here is what is worth paying attention to and how to position your screener before the open.

Why Shortened Weeks Matter

Four-day trading weeks compress the same amount of news into less time. Volume tends to run lighter, especially on the first day back. That lower volume can make price moves look bigger than they are, so it helps to know what is actually driving things versus what is just noise from thin order books.

There is no reliable historical pattern that says the market goes up or down after Presidents Day specifically. Research from Quantified Strategies found that both pre- and post-holiday trading around this date showed no statistical edge. So skip the "holiday effect" takes and focus on what is actually happening this week.

The Big Theme: Sector Rotation Is Real

The story of early 2026 has been money moving out of the mega-cap tech names that led for the past two years. AI stocks and software companies are losing relative strength, and capital is rotating into sectors that were left behind.

Earnings: The Tail End

We are in the final stretch of Q4 2025 earnings season. Most of the big names have already reported, but there are still some mid-cap and small-cap reports trickling in this week. These late reporters sometimes get overlooked, which means the market can react sharply when the numbers surprise in either direction.

What to do with this:

• Check your watchlist for upcoming reports. If a stock you are watching reports this week, decide before the number drops whether you want to hold through it or wait.
• Look for post-earnings drifts. Stocks that reported strong numbers last week but did not move much can sometimes catch a delayed bid as analysts update their models.
• Avoid chasing gaps. Earnings gaps on low volume in a shortened week are unreliable. Let them settle for a day before acting.

Economic Data to Watch

The Fed is still the background variable for everything. Inflation cooled slightly in the last report, which gave stocks a small lift heading into the long weekend. This week, keep an eye on:

• FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday). These are from the January meeting. Markets will parse them for any hints about the pace of future rate decisions, especially with the new Fed leadership transition underway.
• Jobless claims (Thursday). Weekly claims data is the fastest read on labor market health. A surprise in either direction moves rate expectations.
• PMI data (Friday). Manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes give a forward-looking read on economic activity.

How to Set Up Your Screener for This Week

A shortened week with sector rotation and late earnings calls for a specific screening approach. Here is what we would filter for:

1. Relative Strength in Rotating Sectors

Screen for stocks in energy, industrials, and financials with positive momentum over the last 20 days. If a stock is up while its sector is up, that is confirmation. If it is up while the sector is flat, that is even better.

2. Volume Confirmation

In a low-volume week, you want stocks that are bucking the trend with above-average volume. A volume ratio above 1.5x average is a good starting filter. It means real buyers are showing up, not just a few orders moving a thin book.

3. RSI Between 40 and 60

This is not the week to buy deeply oversold names or chase overbought ones. Mid-range RSI stocks have room to move in either direction and are less likely to snap back against you on a random headline.

4. Price Above Support

Check that the stock is trading above its 10-day support level. In a shortened week with potential FOMC volatility, you want a cushion underneath your entry. If support is right below the current price, the risk-reward is not great.

What We Are Watching Tuesday Morning

The first 30 minutes after a long weekend tend to be noisy. Here is how we would approach it:

• Do not trade the open. Let the first 15 to 20 minutes play out. Overnight orders and weekend news create a messy open, especially after a three-day weekend.
• Watch the gap. If the market gaps up or down at the open, note whether it fills within the first hour. A gap that holds is a signal. A gap that fills immediately is just noise.
• Check the daily pick. Our AI Pick of the Day updates every trading day at 10 AM ET. Tuesday's pick will reflect the post-holiday setup.

The Bottom Line

This is not a week to force trades. Four days, potential FOMC volatility, and a market in the middle of a sector rotation means patience pays more than aggression. Use the holiday to review your watchlist, set up your screener with the filters above, and let the setups come to you on Tuesday.

The rotation out of tech and into industrials, energy, and financials is the bigger story right now. If your screener is still pointed at the same AI and software names from last year, it might be time to broaden the search.